That's what I find myself saying as I watch video after video of NFL.com's slick new advertising campaign for the fantasy football portion of its site. Seemingly inspired from the LeBron James Powerade ad where he makes full court jump shots and Kobe Bryant's recent ads for Nike where he jumps over a speeding Aston Martin and a snakepit, NFL.com has put a new twist on the physical abilities of NFL players.
Quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers/tight ends and kickers accomplish on-field feats such as catching balls with one hand and easily hitting downfield targets that are supposed to make the viewer want to choose that player for his or her fantasy football team. The best thing about these ads is that they make even the kickers look like bad asses. That's not easy to do.
Here is probably the most popular one, involving Chris Chambers, but I recommend you check 'em all.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Deconstructing Ryan Howard
It's not often that a hitter will swat 30-plus homers and still have an OPS below .800. Slugging percentage makes up one part of the OPS equation (on-base percentage + slugging percentage = OPS) and a high slugging percentage is often the byproduct of a high home run total. Despite Phillies slugger Ryan Howard's 34 homers, his OPS sits at just .792.
Only one other player since 2005 has hit 30-plus homers and still not reached .800 OPS territory: Arizona center fielder Chris Young, who went deep 32 times but had only a .763 OPS. His problem was that he posted just a .295 on-base percentage, partially a result of his .237 batting average (hits + all types of walks / plate appearances = on-base percentage). Since 2000, there have been only nine instances in which an offensive player has hit 30 or more homers with a sub-.800 OPS.
In Howard's case, there are several factors hindering his OPS. While the 34 homers are impressive, they're somewhat behind pace compared to Howard's homer totals the past two seasons. He hit 58 in 2006 and 47 last year. With roughly five weeks left, it would take a very good September just to get him to last year's total.
He had also averaged 26 doubles in those two seasons and is slightly behind schedule with his 17 two-baggers so far. The extra-base hits are down, though, lowering his slugging percentage to sub-.500 territory, a rarity considering the .600 range he normally hovers around.
His on-base percentage is down for a variety of reasons. His .227 batting average is well below the .268 average he posted last year and light-years away from a .313 mark he achieved in '06. One culprit is his ridiculous strikeout rate. He's fanned on 34.6 percent of his at-bats, which is actually lower than his superhuman 37.6 percent rate last season.
You'd think his batting average would have been worse last season, but he actually recorded most of his outs by whiffing. Looking at his hit percentages, his line drive percentage last season was higher (24.3) than this year (21.4) and his ground ball percentage was dramatically lower (31.5 vs. a very high 43.7 this season). Don't let all these numbers confuse you. This year, he's hitting fewer line drives (which typically go for hits) and many, many more ground balls (which are usually infield ground outs). So, he might be striking out a little bit less, but he's still recording more outs overall. That kills his batting average.
His on-base percentage is also affected by his diminished walk rate. He's drawn a free pass on just 11.3 percent of his plate appearances this season vs. 16.8 percent last season. Looking at his monthly splits, Howard drew 36 of his 64 walks in April and May. That means only 28 walks in the (nearly) ensuing three months. His lack of plate discipline over the summer could be a result of him pressing. He was hitting just .206 by the time June rolled around, so he's probably thrown more pressure at himself trying to raise that batting average to a respectable level.
All of this isn't to infer that Howard is a useless player. He's still one of the best sluggers in the game and his homers and RBIs (108 this year) are among the best in baseball. From a practical level, though, Howard has not done a good job swinging the bat this season.
Only one other player since 2005 has hit 30-plus homers and still not reached .800 OPS territory: Arizona center fielder Chris Young, who went deep 32 times but had only a .763 OPS. His problem was that he posted just a .295 on-base percentage, partially a result of his .237 batting average (hits + all types of walks / plate appearances = on-base percentage). Since 2000, there have been only nine instances in which an offensive player has hit 30 or more homers with a sub-.800 OPS.
In Howard's case, there are several factors hindering his OPS. While the 34 homers are impressive, they're somewhat behind pace compared to Howard's homer totals the past two seasons. He hit 58 in 2006 and 47 last year. With roughly five weeks left, it would take a very good September just to get him to last year's total.
He had also averaged 26 doubles in those two seasons and is slightly behind schedule with his 17 two-baggers so far. The extra-base hits are down, though, lowering his slugging percentage to sub-.500 territory, a rarity considering the .600 range he normally hovers around.
His on-base percentage is down for a variety of reasons. His .227 batting average is well below the .268 average he posted last year and light-years away from a .313 mark he achieved in '06. One culprit is his ridiculous strikeout rate. He's fanned on 34.6 percent of his at-bats, which is actually lower than his superhuman 37.6 percent rate last season.
You'd think his batting average would have been worse last season, but he actually recorded most of his outs by whiffing. Looking at his hit percentages, his line drive percentage last season was higher (24.3) than this year (21.4) and his ground ball percentage was dramatically lower (31.5 vs. a very high 43.7 this season). Don't let all these numbers confuse you. This year, he's hitting fewer line drives (which typically go for hits) and many, many more ground balls (which are usually infield ground outs). So, he might be striking out a little bit less, but he's still recording more outs overall. That kills his batting average.
His on-base percentage is also affected by his diminished walk rate. He's drawn a free pass on just 11.3 percent of his plate appearances this season vs. 16.8 percent last season. Looking at his monthly splits, Howard drew 36 of his 64 walks in April and May. That means only 28 walks in the (nearly) ensuing three months. His lack of plate discipline over the summer could be a result of him pressing. He was hitting just .206 by the time June rolled around, so he's probably thrown more pressure at himself trying to raise that batting average to a respectable level.
All of this isn't to infer that Howard is a useless player. He's still one of the best sluggers in the game and his homers and RBIs (108 this year) are among the best in baseball. From a practical level, though, Howard has not done a good job swinging the bat this season.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)